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Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage | 
 enlarge | Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Category: Book
List Price: $19.95
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Avg. Customer Rating:  65 reviews
Sales Rank: 27805
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 224
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.7
Dimensions (in): 9 x 6 x 0.6
ISBN: 0691116253
Dewey Decimal Number: 333.823211
EAN: 9780691116259
ASIN: 0691116253
Publication Date: August 11, 2003
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Condition: Brand new. Revised and updated paperback edition.
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Product Description
Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970. In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 60 more reviews...
 SUVs Coming Home to Roost June 17, 2008
0 out of 3 found this review helpful
So you went to the pump today and you'd like to complain about the price of gasoline? In Massachusetts it was $4.03/gal (82 euro cents/L). [In Belgium they're laughing at our complaints since they paid $9.18/gal!] We're running out of oil and need new forms of energy. In fact, we've known about it for 30 years. I know we haven't done anything about it because we've been to involved with things of vital national interest (Whitewater, American Idol, blaming high unemployment on women in the workforce, finding ways so that the ultra-rich can leave all of their money to their no account kids, making ketchup a vegetable in poor kids' lunches, defending states' rights - unless it involves same sex marriage, Survivor, making sure today's immigrants don't get the same chances your great-grandparents did, defending South Carolina and Mississippi's right to continue flying symbols of rebellion against the United States, how to ignore black people stranded in a hurricane, how to prevent soldiers from getting adequate health care or a college education, instant replay, flag burning, sex in the Oval Office and, finally, how best to undermine national security: "by outing CIA agents or by ignoring memos stating that the US will be attacked? Oh, we'll just do both").
Now real American politicians realize these are the things most Americans want; but among the things that don't affect their lives, gas prices is near the top of that second tier. Gas prices - like all other prices - are ruled by the law of supply and demand. Demand has increased in recent years as nations like China grow and need more energy. Further, Americans - forgetting the mileage on their Chevy Caprice during the Oil Embargo - are insistent on driving gas-guzzling SUVs that get 13 mpg (18.1L/100km).
Supply, meanwhile, is decreasing. US reserves are being used faster than new discovery (and, have been since the early 70s). There was a decrease in supply after Hurricane Katrina when gas refineries were damaged. Further, in the nation with the second largest oil reserves, the Coalition of the Willing decided to expand the American Empire. While that war was officially declared over in May 2003, for some reason supplies from Iraq are still slow to recover.
But, the largest constraint on supply is its very finiteness. There are only 2.1 trillion or so barrels of oil in the world and we've used about half of them. In the 1970s, geologists and economists determined that the world oil production would peak in the early 2000s. In this work, Deffeyes argues that it will be in 2004 (the book was written in 2001). After that the production will decrease and price increase - thank the gods that didn't happen.
Despite its probable correctness, this book is awful! Deffeyes spends most of the book showing how oil goes from undiscovered to discovered to drilled to recovered. Then he writes a brief chapter in which he determines by his own math when peak oil will happen. Most of it is academic arguments over exact dates between 2004 and 2009 and whether to use a normal bell curve or a logistic bell curve. He then stymies alternative fuels as too far into the future and says we'll just have to live with high-energy prices for ten years. If you really want to know about Hubbert's peak and oil production read the wikipedia article "Peak Oil"; its way more informative!
 Quite a Whirlwind! July 22, 2007
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Taking a trip? Need a gift for that engineer or alternative-energy-green friend? Then get this book! For the professional AND the layman, Kenneth Deffeyes spans various disciplines with a good sense for explanation and storytelling. Quite a feat.
He starts with the origins of the oil business and knows what he is talking about. He makes statistics colorful AND engaging. His graphs are primo and easy to understand when he wishes to hammer home a point.
Deffeyes recounts Marion King Hubbert's sage predicition from the 1950s that oil supply and production has limits. And we had better learn about these limits, fast. No easy answers. Helluva history lesson in readable form. Makes one wants to read other book on the oil industry.
As a country and a culture, we've been riding the riches produced by the bounty of past eons. Our oil epoch will be just a blip on the long history of the earth and humanity. Read it and weep, or feel joyful. Your call.
Deffeyes lays out a coherent argument: the road ahead will not be all high speed and straight. We are in for some rough times and it is best that we engage in a realisitic national debate NOW.
He saves his best for last: meticulous explanations as to alternative energy sources. About time! Some have merit, most have gaping holes that will never payback their true energy investment. His section on "tar sands" is sobering and convincing.
Anyone who drives a car or lives in America oughta read this book.
 Technical, yet Readable!!! May 2, 2007
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I have read a few other books about the oil industry, which brought this book my way. The book provides a lot of interesting insight into why/where oil fields exist, the exploration, drilling, etc. Hubbert's Peak provides a substantial education and not just trivial facts about the size and flow rates of the biggest Saudi fields. This is a great book if you ever wondered why oil is abundant in some places, but non-existent in others.
 A Tough Read Indeed! March 15, 2007
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
This is obviously a well-researched book and perhaps even well-written, but it is a tough read indeed!
I bought this book in order to better understand "Hubbert's Peak" and the issue of oil and the impending oil shortage predicted by so many analyst.
The author does a very good job of explaining Hubbert's peak - in the first chapter of the book no less. But after that it was rough sailing and I found my interesting waning as Deffeyes discussed oil traps, drilling methods, and rate plots.
So I ended up skimming those chapters and jumping to the portion of the book dealing with the future of fossil fuels, alternative energy sources and a new outlook. Unfortunately, the pickings were a bit slim, with the author devoting only 16 of the books 189 pages to these topics.
There are probably better books out there for the layman interested in learning about the world's impending oil crisis.
A tough read but a worthwhile one August 14, 2006
7 out of 7 found this review helpful
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage is not an easy read, but it is an important one if you really want to understand why some knowledgable people are trying to warn us about the end of cheap oil. The author, Kenneth Deffeyes, is thoroughly grounded in his material on both the academic and the professional level, having literally grown up in the oil field, worked for some of the largest oil companies in the world, and having taught at Princeton University. He also has the more unique qualification of having actually studied under and worked with M. King Hubbert himself. The problem with his book, however, is that it is written as if presuming that the reader already has some background in both geology and statistics. At less than 200 pages, it is not a particularly long book, but it is rather dense in places, leaving the reader frequently wishing he could interrupt the lecture and ask questions before moving on.
That said, there is much to be gained from reading this book, even if you only truly absorb a quarter of what is being said. Deffeyes goes into great detail on why oil is found where it is and on the history of oil exploration and production, but most significantly he shows how it is possible these days to know whether there is or isn't oil to be found in a given area and why today there is only one area left in the world where a significant oil field could still be found (the South China Sea). And why, even if found, would not be enough to postpone the day of reckoning for more than a few years.
He also goes into detail showing how Hubbert made his uncannily accurate projection of when US domestic oil production would peak (in 1956, Hubbert projected that US production would peak in 1972 -- the actual peak year turned out to be 1970) and of how this method has been used to project when world oil production would peak (2003). This is where a knowledge of statistics comes into play, and one wishes that the editors had urged him towards some further clarifications for the lay readers. But nonetheless, you can still see how the projections have been made and the supporting evidence for why they need to be taken seriously.
This book was published in 2001. The peak year projected in the book for world oil production was 2003. It is worth noting that the cost of oil has more than doubled since that projected peak year. Deffeyes' most compelling warning about our situation comes at the end of chapter seven: "This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil. At least, let's hope that the war is waged with cash instead of with nuclear warheads."
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