Baseball Prospectus 2003 (Baseball Prospectus)

There are a lot of stats books but this is one of the few that has good commentary to go along with the numbers. It's not just a reference book - it's fun to read. It's especially valuable now that Stats, Inc. has been taken over and homogenized by The Sporting News.


Not as funny as 2002, but an improved resource   April 25, 2003
 8 out of 8 found this review helpful

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS is one of the best sabermeticians' baseball resources out there, and thanks to witty, perceptive player commentaries, very accessible to the less numerically inclined. This should not be considered a resource for fantasy baseball players, but is useful for them as well.

In 2002, PROSPECTUS carried only "translated" player statistics--actual numbers adjusted for park and league effects. The theory is that without taking context into account, it is impossible to measure the value of players relative to one another.

The theory is solid, obviously, but the 2003 edition carries both the actual and the translated statistics, which makes it a much more useful all-in-one resource. You no longer have to go flipping through another book to find what a player actually did.

The player write-ups continue in the humorous but incisive PROSPECTUS tradition, though the humor seems to be a bit less sharp this year. It seems they've decided to be a little more serious and straightforward.


Still the wittiest and most incisive commentary on baseball   April 4, 2003
 10 out of 10 found this review helpful

Baseball Prospectus was already the best annual publication on baseball for thinking baseball fans, and in 2003 it got better in several ways. First, in the past it only contained Clay Davenport's translated stats, but this year it includes both actual (or untranslated) stats and translated stats (batting avg, OBP, SLG, ERA). That's useful because you can compare the actual to translated stats to get a sense of where a player was helped or hurt by the competition and ballparks. Second, and perhaps most significantly, this version adds a new forecasting system from Nate Silver called PECOTA. This system compares a player to his most comparable historical peers in age, skills, and physical makeup and predicts the likelihood that his performance will improve, break out, or collapse. It's a unique predictive system that capitalizes on the fact that very few players are like a Barry Bonds, who overcome historical trends and forces to become statistical anomalies.

Some new contributors were brought on board this year to join an already excellent staff. Doug Pappas writes on the economic and labor situation of baseball better than anyone out there, and Will Carroll of the popular daily e-mail newsletter "Under the Knife" joins up to discuss player injuries. And lastly, the player coverage has increased this year to include even more minor league prospects.

Some of the book's best qualities remain. If you want a clear assessment of any team's current and future prospects and the quality of its management and farm system, absolutely read the introductions at the beginning of each team's chapter. They're brilliant. Secondly, the snippets on each player are as humorous as ever. The Baseball Prospectus writers enjoy flashing their wit. On Chad Bradford, the right handed Oakland A's reliever who is murder on righties: "In the future, as part of the Commissioner's strategy to speed up games, opposing right-handed batters will be permitted to simply throw a one-hopepr down to Eric Chavez rather than actually execute their plate appearance..." If anything, I wish they'd stay on topic in their player commentaries instead of straying to comment on random topics.

For me, it's not the best publication for your fantasy baseball draft because it doesn't include stats which are contextual rather than purely in the control of the player, such as runs or RBIs. Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster is better reference for that. Still, the commentary and PECOTA and projected 2003 stats are a very useful supplement and have helped me snatch some gems in my fantasy drafts. And the entire book is written so well I find myself leaving it on the coffee table all season just to revisit from time to time.

Don't take my word for it. Among those singing its praises are Rob Neyer, Billy Beane, J.J. Ricciardi, Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, John Hunt, John Sickels, and anyone else who knows anything about baseball. ...


Best BP yet   March 11, 2003
 5 out of 5 found this review helpful

Baseball Prospectus just keeps getting better and better.

For those of you who don't know BP, it started out as a small publication doing annual analysis of baseball. Over the last decade or so, its popularity has rocketed, providing a better annual every year and a popular baseball websites (baseballprospectus.com). Each year, the annual contains an essay on each team, several essays on baseball topics in general, analysis of and performance projections for every major league player and every prospect and a top 50 prospects list.

I was concerned about BP2003. Some of the staff have changed, a number of new tools are introduced and the website has become the primary focal point of their publication. I needn't have worried. BP2003 is the usual grand mix of irreverance, hard-hitting analysis and forecasting that we've come to expect. The new PECOTA system not only projects future performance but contains probabilites that a player will have a breakout year or collapse completely.

BP is the first book I grab off the shelf when I see a player for the first time or want to analyze a trade or read about some cool prospect. It's definitely worth buying.