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 enlarge | Manufacturer: Random House
Category: EBooks
List Price: $17.95
Buy New: $9.99
You Save: $7.96 (44%)
Avg. Customer Rating:  352 reviews
Sales Rank: 71
Format: Kindle Book
Media: Kindle Edition
Edition: 1
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 400
Dewey Decimal Number: 003.54
ASIN: B000PDZFCK
Publication Date: April 17, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
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| Customer Reviews:
 Shocked to discover there really *was* an editor, it doesn't show October 16, 2008
7 out of 8 found this review helpful
For being yet another Big Idea book, this book is so horribly organized and the idea so incompletely explained that it utterly fails to impart much besides a few simplistic mental models that would have taken about two pages to summarize.
The best part of this book is the concept of the title, which is unfortunately something that he never completely fleshes out in a way that you can usefully apply. Instead, "NNT" spends a ton of time talking about the history of many "slighted" historical thinkers, a club he proudly includes himself in. In order to elevate the status of these maligned heroes, he spends great effort tearing down most commonly recognized philosophers, economists, writers, etc.
There were the kernels of some interesting ideas in here, which never got polished. The editor utterly failed to help focus the text and explain things in a coherent way. As an example, there are long diatribes about the plight of his ancestral home, many jokes about the French, spiteful slurs against Nobel laureates, especially in economics, and a very ironic soapbox speech about the uselessness of editors that "distill one's message until it has lost all value and consistency." Funny, that. We get that you think the Bell Curve is a Great Intellectual Fraud. Fine, fine, but get to the point already and stop ranting like a blogger.
I agree with other reviewers also about the narcissism and delusions of intellectual grandeur. But my main complaint is that the practicality of the distinction between white, black, and gray swans was never really painted clearly. For example, it would have been really interesting to know the details of how he applied the Big Idea to the real-world financial trading he supposedly is really successful at. He doesn't seem interested to divulge the details. If a magician won't reveal his tricks and this book is an essay about NNT's "magic trick" that he doesn't tell you the secret of using, then why buy this book?
This is my first encounter with Taleb's work, and I have to say that I'm pretty unlikely to read any of his other stuff, it being so negatively colored by this waste of time.
By the way, it's not as long as it seems -- the back 20% or so is all references and bibliography. The best feature of this book perhaps, not because I used it, but because it was a welcome end when I thought there was still 100 pages of rant left to endure.
 Svarta svanar aer ofoerutsaegbara October 14, 2008
0 out of 5 found this review helpful
Nicholas Taleb aer foedd i Libanon, doktor i finansiell ekonomi och foere detta boersmaeklare pa Wall Street. Hans bok The Black Swan var 2007 ars facklitteraera baestsaeljare pa naetbokhandeln Amazon. Den har oeversatts till 27 sprak och recenserats i maengder av tidningar, magasin, TV-program och bloggar. The Black Swan aer en personlig beraettelse om historia, kunskapsteori, sannolikhetslaera, beslutsfattande och kognitiv psykologi.
Boktiteln syftar pa en hoegst osannolik haendelse som i huvudsak har tre karaktaersdrag: den aer ofoerutsaegbar, den har stor inverkan och efter att den intraeffat konstruerar vi en foerklaring som far den att framsta som mer foerutsaegbar aen den faktiskt var. Den 11 september 2001 och tsunamikatastrofen 2004 aer exempel pa svarta svanar, menar Taleb, men de finns genom maensklighetens hela historia och aeven i vara personliga liv. Inom framtidsstudier talas det om begreppet wild card (joker) som betyder ungefaer samma sak som svart svan.
Metaforen bygger pa den gamla vaesterlaendska foerestaellningen om att alla svanar aer vita. Naer europeerna senare upptaeckte Australien sag de foer foersta gangen att det aeven finns svarta svanar. En svart svan blev pa sa saett en metafor foer det hoegst osannolika och ofoerutsaegbara.
Talebs beraettarstil aer arrogant men ocksa tankevaeckande och humoristisk; han aer en naturlig provokatoer som njuter av att sparka mot intellektuella eliter och vad han uppfattar som bedraegliga vetenskapliga konventioner. Han underkaenner hela det ekonomiska och samhaellsvetenskapliga kollektivet vars teorier och modeller utgar fran det normala och genomsnittliga. Studiet av det normala aer ofta irrelevant foer framtiden, menar Taleb, och doktrinen om den statistiska normalfoerdelningen har invaggat vetenskapen i tron att vi lyckats bemaestrat det osaekra, det osannolika.
Naestan alla samhaellsforskare arbetar under denna falska tro som Taleb kallar den stora intellektuella bluffen. Ekonomer och planerare raeknar inte med de aterverkningar som extraordinaera haendelser foer med sig - de aer offer foer prognostisering inside the box - och aer inte baettre pa att goera foerutsaegelser aen astrologer som spar i stjaernorna.
Han finner det skandaloest hur vi - trots att erfarenheten visar pa motsatsen - fortsaetter med trendframskrivningar och prognoser som utesluter avvikelser och extraordinaera haendelser. Vi luras alltfoer laett av dem som vill ledsaga oss in i framtiden med vad Taleb kallar nerd knowledge, missledande matematiska formler som behandlar vaerlden som ett spel daer omstaendigheterna aer kaenda och utfallet kan kalkyleras tillfoerlitligt och precist.
Var foermaga att modellera och foerutse vaerlden har tvaertom minskat med dess tilltagande komplexitet, menar Taleb, vilket tyder pa att det ofoerutsaegbara, de svarta svanarna, far en vaexande roll.
Vi boer vara frisinnade, bottom-up, skeptiska, praktiska och empiriska foer att baettre foersta vaerldens osaekerhet och risk, och inte foerlita oss pa den konventionella, top-down, teoretiska och foerdomsfulla huvudfaran (Taleb benaemner den platonisk) som inriktar sig pa foerutsaegelser och prognoser. Hans foerebilder aer matematikern Henri Poincare, vetenskapsteoretikern Karl Popper, ekonomen Friedrich Hayek, psykologerna Daniel Kahneman och Amos Tversky samt beslutsteoretikern Howard Raiffa.
Taleb haenvisar framfoer allt till Popper och dennes samhaellsvetenskapliga angreppssaett, piecemeal tinkering, och kritik mot moejligheten att foerutsaega historiens utveckling.
Taleb tar foeljande exempel foer att illustrera Poppers tankar. Foerestaell dig att du aer en medeltida prognosmakare som far i uppdrag att foerutspa vad som sker i framtiden. Foer att lyckas med det maste du foerutse bland annat angmaskinen, elektriciteten, atombomben och internet. Annars missar du hela den historiska utvecklingen och daermed ocksa framtiden. Men om du lyckas foerutse de tekniska genombrotten (och se in i den kommande historien), da vet du vad en angmaskin, elektricitet, atombomb och internet aer - vilket innebaer att du ocksa har uppfunnit dem.
Mer kortfattat uttrycker Taleb resonemanget sa haer: Foer att foersta framtiden till den grad att du kan foerutse den, maste du infoerliva element fran framtiden. Argumentet aer egentligen sa fundamentalt att det naestan framstar som trivialt; det intressanta aer varfoer vi inte tar mer haensyn till detta. Poppers "bevis" gar givetvis att problematisera, vilket Taleb avstar fran.
Varfoer blev boken en sadan succe? Den innehaller ju ingenting nytt. Kritiken av den induktiva metoden (som Black Swan theory i huvudsak bygger pa) och alla andra fragestaellningar och teorier Taleb refererar till aer vael kaenda inom vetenskapssamhaellet. Min tolkning aer att framgangen beror pa Talebs personliga och anekdotiska beraettarstil, hans foermaga att foerklara enkelt och roligt foer en bred publik sadant som tidigare var foerbehallet en elit av filosofer och forskare. Framgangsformeln aer uppror, sjaelvsaekerhet och humor. The Black Swan aer en osannolik bedrift som tilltalat laesare vaerlden oever - en svart svan helt enkelt.
Samuel Bohman aer forskningsassistent vid Institutet foer Framtidsstudier.
original and great insight October 10, 2008
3 out of 4 found this review helpful
This is the book I drag around everywhere, you can only read a few pages at a time because you need to think while digesting. the author is very knowledgable - sometimes too knowledgable, but that's a good thing, because he has a lot to say, a different point of view, a chip on his shoulder, intelligence to burn, a worldview bought to american shores, and he is conflicted about the class system - shrugging his shoulders at the suits, but flinging out big names here and there. No matter, it is worth the price of the book, because he stimulates thought. A sure sign of a good teacher, as well as tossing out more than a few investment strategies and his well-concieved notions about our financial system.
Love Taleb and hate him. I look forward to whatever he is working on now, and will go back & buy the Random book that everyone keeps referring to.
 The emperor has no clothes October 10, 2008
6 out of 13 found this review helpful
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable A highly disappointing text from an erudite and capable author. The book is fallacious, misleading and mischievous. The abuse of simple statistical distributions alone warrants not taking it seriously. It is oversold by the blurb and does not do what it says on the cover. Extremely disappointing.
more unbearable than before, and now deluded October 9, 2008
5 out of 9 found this review helpful
Taleb was unbearable in "Fooled by Randomness." Fooled was, however, worth the read. "Swan" is targeted to a general audience; in this attempt Taleb has lost his potentcy. But to greater effect, Taleb now seems deluded. For example, he tells a story of his past when as a tween he frightens the government of his home nation into granting him immunity from political offenses. Sad naive existence
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